With more than 40 years in the international timber industry, Stephen Sabine has followed developments from the inside – from small, family-owned sawmills to today’s global corporations. His career began in Canada.
“Forty years ago, I started at a Canadian importing company, MBM Forest Products. I began as a junior administrator, moved into sales, and eventually became Managing Director and joint owner of the holding company Consolidated Timber Holdings,” he says.
Over the years, the focus shifted from Canada to Scandinavia, the Baltic States and Central Europe. Today, Stephen runs JAM Timber Consulting, providing market intelligence to UK, European and global timber companies.
An Industry in Consolidation
According to Stephen Sabine, the most significant changes over the past 10–15 years have taken place on the producer side.
“The biggest change has been the continued consolidation of the sawmilling industry. It has been necessary – but we have lost the close relationships with smaller, privately owned sawmills.”
At the same time, he points to a global shortage of raw material.
“We know there is a global shortage of raw material. When the next economic upturn comes, it will be crucial to see how it affects demand, availability and prices.”
Many large sawmilling groups have also invested in their own stocking operations in the UK, which has altered distribution channels. Distributors have been forced to work closer to end customers and smaller merchants.
A Fragile UK Market
So how does the UK market look right now?
Stephen Sabine does not hesitate:
“Fragile, delicate, cautious and uncertain.”
Political turbulence – both domestic and international – has created caution in the market. At the same time, he sees brighter prospects ahead.
“There is a more positive outlook for the second half of the year as interest rates and inflation hopefully come under control.”
Despite the uncertainty, there are strong underlying drivers. The UK’s housing shortage and climate targets point toward increased timber use.
“The environmental agenda and our housing shortage should lead to increased consumption,” Stephen Sabine predicts.
The Net Zero 2050 target and initiatives promoting timber construction are expected to increase the building of timber-frame homes. The government’s pledge to build 1.5 million homes is unlikely to be fully achieved, but Stephen Sabine still expects an increase in construction activity – benefiting the timber sector, particularly in refurbishment and maintenance.
"Those who understand the swings of the UK market will benefit – not only in good times, but more importantly in difficult ones."
Sweden’s Strong Position
Sweden is the dominant supplier to the UK market, with approximately 48 percent market share. This is followed by Latvia, Finland, Germany, and Ireland.
“With nearly 50 percent market share, Swedish suppliers must have a good reputation,” Stephen Sabine says with a smile.
He highlights fibre quality, production standards, environmental credentials and reliability as key strengths. However, such dominance can also influence the market.
“When other markets are slow but production levels are maintained, it can create ‘feast or famine’ situations and price fluctuations.”
When asked whether the UK might change its sourcing patterns, Stephen Sabine explains that options are limited – but change may become necessary.
Russia is currently considered unlikely. Canada, however, is viewed as a potential option, especially in light of changing trade relations with the United States. New Zealand is also mentioned as a potential supplier with significant resources.
At the same time, US trade policy has had an impact.
“It has made the world realise that you cannot rely solely on the US in the future.”
Higher Demands for Reliability
A clear shift among UK customers is the increased demand for continuity and reliability.
“Stock levels are significantly lower than in the past. Late shipments can become problematic,” Stephen Sabine notes.
Just-in-time deliveries have become increasingly important. At the same time, ESG issues (Environmental, Social and Governance) carry greater weight than before.
“It can be frustrating – but it is necessary.”
Stephen Sabine first came into contact with Norra Timber in 2015 through his board position at the then Compass Forest Products. He believes Norra Timber holds a strong position in the market.
“Loyalty, continuity and a deep understanding of the UK market have created a strong reputation – not only among customers but also among competitors. I would also highlight the financial strength of the cooperative ownership model as a reassurance for customers.”
Looking Ahead: More Value-Added Wood Products
One of the most important future issues is raw material availability. Stephen believes the market will need alternative solutions.
“Engineered Wood Products, particularly finger-jointed products, will take a larger market share.”
He notes that consumer awareness is increasing, although misconceptions still slow development.
“It is remarkable when consumers say they choose MDF mouldings or steel studs because they ‘stay straight’. Engineered wood products can offer the same stability.”
Finally, he offers clear advice to sawmills aiming to grow in the UK: “Play the long game. Relationships are highly valued. Those who understand the fluctuations of the UK market will benefit – not only in good times, but more importantly in difficult ones.”